The Butterfly’s Wings

By Angus Watson

The Earth’s major religions, the British Empire, the outcome of World War II: as immutable as those chapters of the human story may seem, they could all have been written very differently. Time and time again throughout history, a quirk of luck, a fateful breeze, or good old human incompetence has completely changed the direction of mankind. Lets look at some of those times.

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Where: Judah, 701BC

What nearly happened: Jerusalem sacked by Assyrians

Which would have resulted in: No Jewish, Christian or Muslim Religions

The Assyrians were the superpower of the 8th Century BC. First to use cavalry and iron weapons, they had conquered most of the developed World. In 715 BC, Hezekiah became King of one of the their vassal states: Judah, the southern part of Israel. The wilful Hezekiah rebelled, conquering Assyrian territories and refusing to return tax. He claimed support of the one true god Yahweh, and promoted His worship above all other gods.

The Assyrians moved to swat this fly on their mighty flank. When their huge army arrived at Jerusalem, there seemed no hope. Yahweh also seemed doomed. People in those days always converted to the gods of their conquerors, following the logic that those gods must be stronger.

Suddenly, some overwhelming force devastated the Assyrian army, and Jerusalem was saved. After the narrow escape, the idea that Yahweh was the one true God, no matter what, developed among the Israelites. If they were beaten, then they had disappointed Him and should worship Him all the more. So Yahweh survived subsequent defeats and exiles of the Hebrews. He is still worshipped today as the Jew’s Yahweh, the Christian God, and Muslim’s Allah.

What wiped out the Assyrian army? Some say a plague, some say a powerful African tribe came to the rescue. According to the Tanakh (the Hebrew Bible), an angel of Yahweh slew 185,000 Assyrians. Whatever happened, Jerusalem was saved. Had it not been, there would be no Jewish, Christian or Muslim faiths, and the World would be a very different place.

Where: Germany, Teutoburg Forest, 9AD

What nearly happened: Romans conquered Germany

Which would have resulted in: A longer Roman Empire, a new Germany

In 9AD the Romans had ruled what is now southern Germany for 20 years. All seemed peaceful. The Roman leader, Varus, was marching with 23,500 legionaries and 10,000 camp followers to winter quarters. He had ignored warnings of a planned insurrection, so soldiers and civilians mingled contentedly as they ambled on. On the second day Arminius, a Roman commander of German descent, disappeared along with his troops. Simultaneously, several outlying Roman units were slaughtered.

Varus marched on unabashed, taking no defensive precautions.

Arminius, ranks swelled with Germanic tribesmen, struck the Roman column’s rear with javelins. Varus sent the light infantry, comprised of local tribesmen, to repel the attack, but they deserted and joined the attackers. By the time Varus had marshalled his faithful legionaries into a useful defence, casualties were shockingly high.

Still Varus marched on. In Teutoburg Forest, the terrible situation deteriorated further. Arminius’ men cut down trees to impede the Roman advance, and hacked at the flanks with hit-and-run attacks. When Varus finally ordered a retreat to a hastily-constructed earthwork, he’d lost too many men to defend it. Almost all the remaining Romans, soldiers and civilians, were massacred. Varus committed suicide.

Stunned by this disaster, the Romans set their northern border along the Rhine and Danube rivers. Had Varus saved his legions, the Romans probably would have taken all of Germany. This would have changed everything. Modern Germany would be completely different, ethnically and culturally. The Dark Age Saxon invasion of Britain wouldn’t have happened. Most obviously, as the tribes that sacked Rome 400 years after Teutoburg Forest came from Germany, the Roman Empire may have lasted a lot longer.

Little did Varus realise, as he killed himself at Teutoburg, just how far-reaching the consequences of his incompetence would be.

Where: The English Channel, 1588

What nearly happened: The Armada won

Which would have resulted in: No British Empire, USA speaks Spanish

In the late 16th Century, Phillip II of Spain was in command of the World’s finest army and a strong navy. The English pirate-admirals, notably Drake, Frobisher and Hawkins, were a nuisance to the Spanish, and, far from discouraging them, Philip’s sister-in-law Elizabeth I of England was filling her coffers with their proceeds. She was also supplying troops to Dutch rebelling under Spanish rule. Philip decided to invade.

The plan was sound. Spain’s navy would protect troop-ships carrying the army across The Channel from Holland. After a few easy battles, England would belong to Philip.

Due to a mixture of bad judgement and bad luck, the plan went wrong. Spain’s talented naval leader died in January 1588, and Philip replaced him with a Duke who had served in neither navy nor army. As a result, the English navy, a collection of buccaneers more interested in loot then protecting England, sailed circles around the Spaniards, sinking a few ships with their longer range guns. The Spanish blasted away uselessly, wasting their heavier but shorter range cannonballs.

Then the weather turned in England’s favour. As the Spanish regrouped outside Calais, a fresh wind blew from English to Spanish fleet. The English set eight ships aflame and sailed them towards the anchored Armada. The Spanish panicked, chopped anchor ropes, and fled.

A strong south wind forced the Armada to abandon its troop escort duties and flee home around the top of Scotland and Ireland. Terrible weather wrecked half the remaining fleet on treacherous Irish and Scottish coasts.

The invasion of England was put off for ever. With the Spanish Fleet massively depleted, England gained the naval confidence to rule the seas, and embarked on building the largest empire ever seen. But for the ineptitude of the Spanish commander, and a lucky wind, England would never have risen as a power, Spain would have conquered the Americas unchallenged, and the USA’s official language would be Spanish.

Where: Germany, 1891

What nearly happened: Annie Oakley shot Kaiser Wilhelm II

Which would have resulted in: No World Wars.

Had a small American woman’s aim been slightly off in 1891, Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany would have been shot dead, and two World wars might have been avoided.

Annie Oakley was touring Europe with Buffalo Bill’s Wild West Show as its star sharp-shooter. She was a tough little woman, born into a poor Ohio family as Phoebe Ann Moses in 1860. Her father froze to death in 1866 while bringing food home through a blizzard. In her teens Annie helped her mother by shooting game for the local grocers. They liked her work so much that they gave her the latest thing in shotguns, and persuaded her to enter shooting competitions.

She was an unnaturally good shot, able to hit a dime tossed into the air at 90 feet. Supported by her husband Frank Butler, she joined Buffalo Bill Cody’s stage show as the star act. Buffalo Bill was one of the most famous men in the World at the time, and soon Annie was one of the most famous women.

They toured the World, feted by royalty wherever they went. Queen Victoria of Britain was a particular fan. During the 1891 German tour, Kaiser Wilhelm II came to watch. He saw Annie shoot the ash off a cigarette in her husband’s mouth, and insisted that she do the same for him.

Despite her skill, she was nervous, and refused. The Kaiser insisted. In the end she agreed, but only if he held the cigarette in his hand.

If Annie had panicked, slipped, or used a defective bullet, she might have killed the Kaiser. Has she, Germany would probably have not indulged its warmongering generals so much, and not entered the turn of the century arms race with such gusto. As a result there would probably have been no World wars, not as we know them anyway, and modern history with have been utterly different.

When World War I broke out, Annie wrote to the Kaiser asking for another shot.

Where: Cambridge 1925

What nearly happened: J. Robert Oppenheimer kills his tutor

Which would have resulted in: Soviets ruling the World

As Director of the Manhattan Project, Robert Oppenheimer was the father of nuclear warfare. He managed the production of the two atomic bombs dropped on Japan in 1945, bringing an end to World War II. He very nearly didn’t make it to that position, due to a strangely homicidal prank.

Oppenheimer was born to wealthy parents in New York in 1904. He was a brilliant student, but, like many bright children, unpopular and therefore unhappy at school. He graduated from Harvard, magna cum laude, and headed off to Cambridge University, England, as a research student in 1925. His lack of social skills lead to continuing loneliness. His strengths lay in theoretical physics, but he was made to work in the laboratory, where he was clumsy and unsuccessful. He was also arguing with his mother. When he was dumped by a girlfriend, the mentally fragile Oppenheimer snapped.

He poisoned an apple and left it on the desk of his tutor, Patrick Blackett. Luckily the poison was discovered before Blackett ate it. Oppenheimer was reprimanded, ordered to undergo psychiatric treatment, but allowed to stay on at Cambridge.

Had Cambridge been less lenient, or Blackett hungrier, Oppenheimer’s career would have been over. The Manhattan Project would still have gone ahead, but chances are it would have had different results – World War II may have been prolonged just a short while, or it may have dragged on for years as America sought to end it with conventional means. In the worst case scenario, the USSR may have developed the atomic bomb before the USA, they may have used it, and we might be living (or not) under a very different regime today.

Where: New York, Dec 13th 1931

What nearly happened: Winston Churchill killed

Which would have resulted in: Germany wins World War II

During a 1931 a lecture tour of the USA, Churchill looked the wrong way while stepping off a curb. A car smashed into him and he was tossed into the gutter, his scalp cut to the bone. He spent eight days in hospital, then a long time recuperating.

“I am suffering from the after-effects of a hideous shock,” he said to a friend, “and I expect it will be some months before I am really myself again.”

It is often argued that one man cannot make much difference to human history. A look though Churchill’s career after his near death experience would suggest otherwise.

In the climate of appeasement and pacifism after World War I, Churchill was one of few who took a realistic view of the threat from a re-arming Germany. Throughout the 1930s he spoke out against the British disarmament policy. As a result, Britain was not as horribly under-prepared as it might have been when the Nazi war machine sprang to life.

Politicians and public saw him as a natural wartime leader, so he became Prime Minister in May 1940. He was faced by fearsome odds, bordering on certain defeat. Many a leader would have capitulated. Churchill did not. He stirred the British bulldog spirit into a fierce, proud, determined resilience with his excellent rhetoric. With his unpopular appointment of Montgomery as commander of British forces in North Africa, he ensured the first major victory, and major boost in morale, for the Allies at El Alamein. With frequent risky visits to the US President, Churchill first ensured funding for the British war effort, then secondly that the US concentrated on the war in Europe, rather than the threat from Japan.

Had Winston Churchill been killed by that car, the Allies would have lost the war, or at least had a much tougher time winning it.

Where: Pacific Ocean, June 4th-8th, 1942

What nearly happened: Japan defeated the USA

Which would have resulted in: All change in the World order

After destroying the US Fleet at Pearl Harbour on December 7th 1941, the Japanese ran amok in the Pacific, conquering island after island. In May 1942, Midway was to be America’s death blow.

The Japanese plan was good. They would launch a dummy attack on the Aleutians, the string of islands dripping from Alaska’s chin. The depleted US fleet would steam north to defend. Meanwhile, a much larger Japanese force would take the Midway Islands, in the middle of the Pacific (as the name might suggest). When the US fleet came south to investigate, it would be annihilated by Japanese submarines and planes newly based at Midway.

The USA’s first piece of luck was cracking the Japanese Code. From deciphering Japanese transmissions, they knew that a big attack was planned on an island codenamed ‘AF’. Guessing it might be Midway, they transmitted an un - encoded message saying that Midway was running out of water. Shortly afterwards, they intercepted a Japanese message saying “AF short of water”. Simple. Code cracked, the US fleet ignored the Aleutian dummy, and sailed to Midway to head off the Japs.

The US were massively outgunned. Initially, they could not dent the Japanese, losing plane after plane in futile attacks. It looked like the Pacific was lost.

However, a US dive-bomber patrol about to run out of fuel spotted a Japanese air-craft carrier. Within five minutes, a mixture of pluck and extreme luck lead US dive-bombers and a submarine to sink three of Japan’s four aircraft carriers. The fourth carrier was sunk shortly afterwards, the battle was won, and the tide of the Pacific War was turned for good.

Terrible tactics from the Japanese had allowed the US to capitalise on their luck. The Japanese only undertook the scantest reconnaissance. Despite being under attack for four days, they never discovered the whereabouts the US fleet. In the entire battle, and only one US ship, the carrier Yorktown, came under attack. Even worse, when the first three Japanese carriers were sunk, all their fighter planes were armed and ready to deal with any incoming dive-bombers, but, crazily, the captains kept them on deck.

If the Japanese had won Midway they would have taken Hawaii unopposed, then attacked the US west coast, perhaps even invading. Beleaguered at home, The US would have sent very few, if any, troops to Europe, and the Normandy landings would have been impossible. It’s likely Germany would have still been defeated, but by the USSR, who would probably have occupied all of mainland Europe, shifting the Iron Curtain to the west coast of France.

Has the US not broken the code, had the Japanese not commanded so appallingly, and had a dive-bomber pilot not looked out of the window at the right moment, the World would be very different today.